Facts vs Feelings: A Data-Driven Guide to the 2026 Texas Democratic Primary

Disclosure: This analysis was researched and written with the assistance of Claude Code, Anthropic’s AI coding assistant. All candidate information was sourced from public reporting, campaign websites, editorial board interviews, and polling data. The persuasion scoring reflects the author’s editorial judgment applied through an AI-assisted workflow. Voters should verify claims independently before casting a ballot.

The March 3, 2026 Texas Democratic Primary ballot for Dallas County is enormous — 31 contested races spanning federal, state, and local offices. I went through my sample ballot (Precinct 12), researched every candidate in every contested race, and scored them on how much they rely on facts and data versus feelings and emotions to make their case.

Same methodology as the Republican guide: two independent 1–10 scales. A candidate can score high on both, low on both, or anywhere in between. Judicial races tend to cluster low on emotion, which is appropriate — you probably don’t want a judge who campaigns on rage.

One important context note: Democrats haven’t won statewide in Texas since 1994. The primary winner in most Dallas County local races is effectively the general election winner, but every statewide nominee faces long odds in November.

US Senate: Talarico vs. Crockett

This is the marquee race on the Democratic ballot — a genuine two-person fight between two former Texas House colleagues who are running very different campaigns.

James Talarico — Facts: 7 | Emotion: 6

The state representative from Round Rock is a former middle school teacher (Harvard M.Ed.) who has built what may be the most impressive small-dollar fundraising operation in Texas Democratic history. Over $20 million raised for the cycle, 98% in donations of $100 or less, zero corporate PAC money, 290,000+ individual donors. He’s outspent Crockett 19-to-1 on advertising.

His policy pitch is economic populist: ban Congressional stock trading, raise taxes on the ultra-wealthy, cut costs for childcare, housing, and prescription drugs. He frames politics as “top vs. bottom, not left vs. right” and actively courts disaffected Trump voters — an unusual play in a Democratic primary. His most memorable ad references corruption and pledges to take on dark money.

The controversy: social media influencer Morgan Thompson accused him of calling former Rep. Colin Allred a “mediocre Black man.” The claim is unverified and comes from a single source, but Allred amplified it, creating a real campaign headache in a primary where Black voter turnout is critical.

Endorsements: Houston Chronicle, Austin American-Statesman, Sen. Martin Heinrich (D-NM), Rep. Julie Johnson (D-TX), Texas’ largest Hispanic Democratic organization, 100+ state/local officials. Fundraising: $20M+ cycle total; $7.1M cash on hand. Polling: Emerson: 47% (leading). UH: 39% (trailing by 8).

Jasmine Crockett — Facts: 5 | Emotion: 7

The congresswoman from Dallas is running on national profile and combative progressive energy. She went viral multiple times clashing with Republicans in committee hearings and has positioned herself as a “battle-tested fighter.” Her campaign emphasizes the federal funding she’s directed to her district and her record supporting labor, seniors, and marginalized communities.

The puzzle of Crockett’s campaign is the gap between her resources and her execution. She raised $6.5 million but hadn’t run a single broadcast ad as of early February — outspent 19-to-1 on the airwaves. Her donor base includes crypto super PACs, Marc Andreessen, the Winklevoss twins, Blackrock’s PAC, and Lockheed Martin’s PAC — a sharp contrast with Talarico’s small-dollar army and a tension point with progressive primary voters.

Endorsements: Congressional Black Caucus PAC, EMILY’s List, SEIU Texas, former Rep. Colin Allred, San Antonio Express-News. Fundraising: $6.5M raised; $5.6M cash on hand. Polling: UH: 47% (leading). Emerson: 38% (trailing).

Ahmad R. Hassan — Facts: 2 | Emotion: 2

A serial candidate who has run for US Senate in Minnesota, Harris County Judge, and various Texas Congressional seats. Egyptian immigrant, real estate broker, former professional soccer team owner. Polling at 2%. No FEC filings. A ballot placeholder, not a serious contender.

US Rep, District 5: Long Shot Central

All three Democrats are running against Republican incumbent Lance Gooden in a heavily Republican district (Cook PVI R+14). None has significant fundraising or name recognition.

Ruth “Truth” Torres (Facts: 4, Emotion: 4) is the 2024 Democratic nominee making another run — the strongest of the three by default. Forrest Lumpkin is an aerospace engineer with limited campaign presence. Chelsey Hockett is a TWU graduate whose career has spanned restaurants, airlines, and parenting.

Governor: Hinojosa and Everyone Else

Nine names are on the ballot, but this is effectively a one-person race. State Rep. Gina Hinojosa leads by roughly 30 points and has consolidated the party’s institutional support.

Gina Hinojosa — Facts: 7 | Emotion: 6

The Austin state representative is vice chair of the Texas Legislative Progressive Caucus and a former Austin ISD school board president who grew up in Brownsville as the daughter of Gilberto Hinojosa, the former state Democratic Party chair. Education is her signature issue — she calls Abbott’s school voucher program a “scam” and hammers the fact that Texas teachers are paid $10,000 below the national average.

Her campaign also targets “the Greg Abbott corruption tax,” arguing that special interests write legislation that benefits wealthy donors at the expense of working families. She raised $1.3 million with an average donation under $50 and no corporate PAC money — respectable for a first-time statewide candidate, but a rounding error compared to Abbott’s $23 million.

Endorsements: Texas AFL-CIO, SEIU Texas, Texas AFT, Houston Chronicle, Reps. Crockett, Doggett, Casar, Escobar, Garcia, and Gonzalez; Andrew White (who dropped out and endorsed her). Polling: 37% (nearest rival at 7%). Trails Abbott 42–49% in general election polls.

Chris Bell — Facts: 6 | Emotion: 5

The former congressman and 2006 Democratic gubernatorial nominee is back for a second try, 20 years later. He’s a Houston personal injury attorney running on anti-corruption and public education, but the campaign hasn’t caught fire. At 7% in polls and with limited fundraising, the question isn’t whether he can beat Hinojosa — it’s whether he can force a runoff. (He almost certainly can’t.)

Seven other candidates round out the field. Bobby Cole (rancher/retired firefighter, 6% in polls) has some profile with a property tax and education platform. Angela “TiaAngie” Villescaz founded Fierce Madres, a gun violence prevention org born from the Uvalde shooting — a compelling personal story, but she’s running a minor campaign. Andrew White (son of former Gov. Mark White) dropped out January 5 and endorsed Hinojosa but still appears on the ballot. Zach Vance (medically retired Marine), Carlton W. Hart (event manager), Jose Navarro Balbuena (tax strategist), and Patricia Abrego have minimal public presence.

Lieutenant Governor: Labor’s Divide

Vikki Goodwin — Facts: 6 | Emotion: 4

The four-term state representative from Austin is the establishment choice — she sits on the House Appropriations Committee and runs a competence-focused campaign. Anti-voucher, pro-marijuana legalization (“treat it the same as we do alcohol”), pro-education funding. The Houston Chronicle endorsed her. With $161,000 cash on hand, she leads the field financially, though “leads” is relative when the Republican incumbent Dan Patrick is sitting on $38 million.

Marcos Isaias Velez — Facts: 5 | Emotion: 6

The dark horse. A steelworkers union leader from Pasadena whose financial support trail leads back to the Texas Majority PAC — the state party’s top campaign partner. He nabbed the Texas AFL-CIO’s COPE endorsement, one of the most coveted in a Democratic primary, which is notable because the AFL-CIO endorsed Goodwin’s rival. His platform: legalize THC and gambling to fund property tax cuts, address wage stagnation, make homeownership achievable. Working-class authenticity is his calling card, but the party-insider financial backing undercuts the outsider brand.

Fundraising: $51,000 cash on hand.

Courtney Head — Facts: 4 | Emotion: 3

A software company contracts manager from San Antonio with $330 cash on hand. Pro-cannabis, pro-Medicaid expansion, pro-high-speed rail. An ideas candidate without the infrastructure to be heard.

Attorney General: Johnson’s Race to Lose

With Ken Paxton vacating the office to run for Senate, this is the Democrats’ chance to nominate someone to challenge whoever emerges from the Republican bloodbath.

Nathan Johnson — Facts: 7 | Emotion: 4

The three-term state senator from Dallas is the clear frontrunner. A business litigator and former film composer (really), he unseated Republican Don Huffines in 2018 — becoming the first Democrat to win that North Dallas district in 30 years. He’s passed 134 pieces of legislation and wants to restore the AG office to its “boring” institutional functions: Medicaid fraud investigation, consumer protection, constitutional checks on executive overreach. He pointedly refuses to be a partisan warrior, saying he wants to “minimize partisanship for the sake of productivity.”

Fundraising: $652,819 war chest — largest in the field. Polling: 25% (leading). 40% undecided.

Joe Jaworski — Facts: 5 | Emotion: 5

The former Galveston mayor and 35-year attorney is running on personal integrity — “I will never lie to you, I can’t be bought, and I have your back.” His problem is a losing record: he’s lost his last three races, including the 2022 AG primary to Rochelle Garza. Nathan Johnson openly needled him about it at a recent forum: Democrats need “somebody who can win.”

Fundraising: $219,882. Polling: 22%.

Anthony “Tony” Box — Facts: 4 | Emotion: 6

Former FBI agent. Twenty-year Army veteran. Former federal prosecutor. Shot at age 16 while helping someone — and carries the bullet as a reminder to serve others. It’s a remarkable personal story, and the campaign leans into it. But at 3% in polls with $137,602 raised, he’s fighting for third place in a three-person race.

Comptroller: Eckhardt Stands Out

Sarah Eckhardt — Facts: 7 | Emotion: 3

The two-term state senator from Austin and former Travis County judge runs the most competence-heavy campaign in the entire primary. Her tagline: “We need a watchdog over the public accounts, not a lapdog.” She opposes vouchers and wants the comptroller to ensure transparent reporting on who benefits from the program. The Dallas Morning News endorsed her. She keeps her Senate seat regardless of this race’s outcome — a nice safety net.

Savant Moore — Facts: 5 | Emotion: 4

The Houston ISD trustee, age 40, wants to use the comptroller’s office to regulate the school voucher system and restore the Historically Underutilized Business (HUB) program for minorities, women, veterans, and people with disabilities. A focused platform.

Michael Lange — Facts: 6 | Emotion: 3

A 62-year-old finance professional (UT Austin, INSEAD) pitching small business expansion — he wants to grow the share of Texans working in small businesses from 44% to over 60%. Data-forward, low-drama.

Land Commissioner: Marine vs. Farmer

Jose Loya — Facts: 5 | Emotion: 6

A Marine Corps veteran who deployed twice to Iraq and became a U.S. citizen while serving overseas. Now a United Steelworkers union representative. He wants the GLO to maximize public land revenues for schools and expand veteran services. The military-to-union pipeline gives him both personal narrative power and policy credibility.

Benjamin Flores — Facts: 6 | Emotion: 4

A Bay City council member and heritage pig farmer (yes, really) who’s the more policy-specific of the two. He accepts climate change as “real and urgent” for Texas’s 367-mile coastline and wants to build environmental resilience against extreme weather. Criticizes slow bureaucratic disaster response.

Supreme Court Races

Democrats are running candidates for three Supreme Court seats. Two have contested primaries.

Chief Justice: Ellis vs. Carlyle

Maggie Ellis (Facts: 5, Emotion: 5) is a justice on the 3rd Court of Appeals, former prosecutor, former public school teacher, and former administrative law judge. She entered the race after the Texas Supreme Court issued guidance that judges don’t have to perform same-sex marriages — she called it “an attack on our community and our Constitution.” Endorsed by the AFL-CIO, Stonewall Democrats, and the San Antonio Express-News. Cash on hand: $21,392.

Cory L. Carlyle (Facts: 6, Emotion: 3) is a former 5th Court of Appeals justice and board-certified appellate lawyer now in private practice at Thompson Coe. He’s the more legalistic of the two — “faithfully interpret laws and follow precedent.” Endorsed by Preston Hollow Democrats. Cash on hand: $3,717.

Place 7: Hawkins vs. Goodman

Kristen Hawkins (Facts: 5, Emotion: 3) has been a Houston district judge since 2017 and oversaw the Astroworld multidistrict litigation. She argues the high court needs trial judge perspectives. Houston Chronicle endorsed.

Gordon Goodman (Facts: 6, Emotion: 2) is a 72-year-old former presiding judge of the 1st Court of Appeals with deep oil and gas, banking, and appellate law experience. Dallas Morning News endorsed. He lost his appellate seat in the 2024 primary.

Criminal District Attorney: Reform vs. Challenger

This is the highest-profile local race on the ballot.

John Creuzot (Incumbent) — Facts: 6 | Emotion: 4

The DA since 2019 has built his tenure around criminal justice reform: deflection centers that steer mentally ill individuals to treatment instead of jail, reduced juvenile detention, and a conviction integrity unit. The Dallas Morning News endorsed him. He’s the establishment pick with a solid donor base.

Amber Givens — Facts: 4 | Emotion: 5

The challenger resigned her 282nd District Court judgeship to run for DA. Her pitch — a “justice-conscious office that never fears the truth” — sounds compelling until you read her record. She’s been sanctioned twice by the State Commission on Judicial Conduct: once for allowing her court coordinator to impersonate her online, once for allegedly jailing a man and revoking another’s bond after recusing herself from both cases. She faced a two-year Texas Rangers investigation (no charges filed). A wrongful imprisonment lawsuit. Dallas County commissioners withheld $25,000 of her supplemental pay. This is the most controversy-laden candidate on the entire Democratic ballot.

5th Court of Appeals, Place 8

Andrea D. Plumlee (Facts: 5, Emotion: 2) brings 32 years of legal experience as both trial lawyer and district judge. Nicholas D. Palmer (Facts: 5, Emotion: 3) is the chief of the appellate section at the Dallas City Attorney’s office and was endorsed by the LGBTQ+ Victory Fund.

Local Judicial Races

Dallas County’s Democratic primary is packed with judicial contests. Here are the contested ones with notable dynamics:

191st District Court: Incumbent Gena Slaughter faces Elizabeth Ginsberg, a Dallas attorney recommended by the Dallas Morning News editorial board.

194th District Court (3-way): The standout is Peggy Hoffman, who has presided over County Criminal Court No. 9 since 2007 with consistently high Dallas Bar Association marks. She’s the Morning News pick. Desmond (Dez) Cooks is a Navy vet and defense attorney. Kim Cooks is a former family court judge who lost her re-election bid in 2022.

195th, 256th, 282nd, 298th, 363rd District Courts: All two-person races with limited publicly available information distinguishing the candidates.

Family Courts (301st, 302nd, 330th): The 302nd race is notable — local family law attorneys have raised concerns about incumbent Sandra Jackson’s judicial performance, per DMN reporting. Desiree Marie Bedasa is the challenger.

Criminal District Courts: Court No. 1 (Polk vs. Hudson) and Court No. 5 (Alexander vs. Smith vs. Patterson) are contested.

County Criminal Courts: Contested races for No. 1 (Baker vs. Mayse), No. 6 (Hawthorne vs. King), No. 9 (Singleton vs. Villarreal), and Criminal Appeals No. 1 (Groves vs. Guio).

County Clerk: Three-Way Race

Ann Marie Cruz has nearly four decades of experience in the county clerk’s office — the institutional knowledge candidate. Damarcus L. Offord, a DART state relations manager, has the outgoing county clerk’s endorsement as his preferred successor. Tony Grimes has limited public profile.

Justice of the Peace, Precinct 2

Two contested JP races: Place 1 (Margaret O’Brien vs. Christina Whitfield-Sowells) and Place 2 (Antoinette N Harris vs. Katina Whitfield). Limited distinguishing information is publicly available for all four candidates.

The Rankings

Who Relies Most on Facts?

Who Relies Most on Emotion?

Controversy Leaderboard

Most Qualified for the Specific Office

Ballot Propositions

The Democratic ballot includes 13 non-binding survey propositions. These don’t change law — they signal party priorities. The topics: Medicaid expansion, humane immigration, reproductive rights, housing affordability, public school funding, online voter registration, environmental protection, cannabis legalization, state employee pay raises, non-partisan redistricting, working-class tax relief, public transportation, and red flag gun laws.

Uncontested Races

These positions have a single Democratic candidate:

Methodology

Fact-Based Persuasion (1-10): How often a candidate uses verifiable data, specific policy proposals, legislative records, statistics, and detailed plans.

Emotion-Based Persuasion (1-10): How often a candidate uses fear, anger, hope, identity appeals, personal narratives, moral framing, or culture war rhetoric.

These are independent scales — a candidate can score high on both. Scores are based on campaign websites, public statements, news coverage, editorial board interviews, and advertising as of February 2026. Candidates with insufficient publicly available material were noted accordingly.

Sources: Texas Tribune, Dallas Morning News, Ballotpedia, Houston Chronicle, Houston Public Media, Emerson College Polling, University of Houston Hobby School, Community Impact, Spectrum News, KERA News, KUT, CBS Texas, San Antonio Express-News, San Antonio Report, KSAT, NOTUS, Dallas Voice, Texas Judges, The Texan