Disclosure: This analysis was researched and written with the assistance of Claude Code, Anthropic’s AI coding assistant. All candidate information was sourced from public reporting, campaign websites, editorial board interviews, and polling data. The persuasion scoring reflects the author’s editorial judgment applied through an AI-assisted workflow. Voters should verify claims independently before casting a ballot.
The March 3, 2026 Texas Republican Primary ballot for Dallas County is packed — 12 contested races with 47 candidates total. I went through my sample ballot (Precinct 166), researched every candidate in every contested race, and scored them on how much they rely on facts and data versus feelings and emotions to make their case.
The methodology is simple: two independent 1–10 scales. A candidate can score high on both (a skilled communicator who uses data and stirs emotion) or low on both (a quiet campaign with little public presence). The scores come from reviewing campaign websites, public statements, news coverage, editorial board interviews, and advertising.
US Senate: The Heavyweight Fight
This is the marquee race on the ballot. Three major candidates are battling for the seat currently held by John Cornyn.
Ken Paxton — Facts: 3 | Emotion: 9
The former Attorney General leads January polling at 38%. His campaign runs almost entirely on emotional appeals — “take a sledgehammer to the D.C. establishment,” “stop career politicians attacking our way of life,” “defeat the radical transgender movement.” He positions himself as “a conservative outsider — just like President Trump.” Specific policy proposals are rare; broad ideological identity is the product.
Background: TX Attorney General since 2015. Previously TX House and TX Senate. Endorsements: High MAGA base favorability; conservative activist networks. Controversies: Impeached by TX House in 2023 (acquitted by Senate); securities fraud indictment pending since 2015; whistleblower retaliation investigation; former consultant indicted. Fundraising: $5.3M raised; ~$375K satellite support.
John Cornyn — Facts: 6 | Emotion: 6
The four-term incumbent is the most balanced communicator in the race. He cites his legislative record, voting percentages (“99.2% alignment with Trump”), and seniority. But he also deploys character attacks on Paxton (“con man’s vanity project”) and has increasingly leaned into Trump loyalty messaging to court the MAGA base. The bipartisan gun safety bill from 2022 remains his biggest vulnerability with primary voters.
Background: US Senator since 2002. Former TX AG and TX Supreme Court Justice. Endorsements: Senate Republican leadership (Thune, Tim Scott/NRSC); ~$50M in satellite group spending. Fundraising: $10.0M raised. Polling: 31%.
Wesley Hunt — Facts: 5 | Emotion: 7
The youngest of the three major candidates leans heavily on his personal biography — West Point, Apache helicopter pilot, Iraq combat veteran. He pitches himself as the “younger alternative” and claims to be “the most consistently conservative legislator representing Texas.” Policy specifics center on energy production and DOGE spending cuts, but the campaign’s engine is the patriotic hero narrative.
Background: US Rep (TX-38) since 2023. West Point grad, Army veteran, businessman. Endorsements: Standing For Texas nonprofit ($4.2M spent). No Trump endorsement yet. Controversies: Criticized for missed Congressional votes while campaigning. Polling: 17%.
Five additional minor candidates (Anna Bender, John O. Adefope, Gulrez “Gus” Khan, Virgil John Bierschwale, Sara Canady) have minimal public campaign presence.
Governor: Abbott vs. the Field
Greg Abbott is seeking an unprecedented fourth term. He has 10 Republican challengers, but none with significant fundraising or polling.
Greg Abbott — Facts: 5 | Emotion: 7
Abbott cites economic metrics and border crossing statistics, but his signature moves are emotional ones — razor wire along the Rio Grande, busing migrants to northern cities, Operation Lone Star. These are designed to generate a visceral response, and they do.
Controversies: 2021 Winter Storm Uri grid failures; federal border clashes; ERCOT oversight questions.
Pete “Doc” Chambers — Facts: 5 | Emotion: 8
The lead challenger is a retired Green Beret and physician running to Abbott’s right. He cites specific STAAR test data (52% reading proficiency, 45% math) and proposes a Texas DOGE with blockchain transparency. But the campaign’s center of gravity is faith-based governance, military heroism, and apocalyptic warnings about Texas’s future. His core attack: Abbott has delivered “all optics and no action.”
Nine other challengers (Evelyn Brooks, Kenneth Hyde, Ronnie Tullos, Charles Andrew Crouch, Nathaniel Welch, Stephen Samuelson, Arturo Espinosa, R.F. “Bob” Achgill, Mark V. Goloby) have limited public profiles.
Lieutenant Governor: Patrick Cruises
Dan Patrick — Facts: 6 | Emotion: 7
The three-term incumbent and former radio host is a skilled two-track communicator. He cites the $18 billion property tax cut and $100K homestead exemption while simultaneously running populist “I fought for you” messaging. His main vulnerability: he publicly disagrees with Abbott on whether property taxes can be fully eliminated.
Challengers: Timothy Mabry (Navy veteran, firefighter, business consultant), Perla Muñoz Hopkins, and Esala Wueschner all have limited public campaign profiles.
Attorney General: Open Seat, Four-Way Race
Ken Paxton vacated this seat to run for Senate, creating the most competitive open-seat race on the ballot.
Chip Roy — Facts: 7 | Emotion: 5
The frontrunner (33% in polls) is the most fact-driven candidate in a statewide race. As a former First Assistant AG under Paxton and former chief of staff to Ted Cruz, he has deep legal credentials and isn’t afraid to reference policy nuance. Notably, he’s willing to disagree with Trump “when I think it’s the right thing to do for the people of Texas” — a rare admission in this primary.
Mayes Middleton — Facts: 4 | Emotion: 8
The State Senator and oil company president is running as the self-described “MAGA candidate.” He lists legislative wins (Save Women’s Sports Act, Ten Commandments in classrooms, school prayer) but frames everything through culture war identity. At 23% in polls, he’s the likely runoff opponent for Roy.
Joan Huffman — Facts: 7 | Emotion: 4
The long-serving State Senator runs the most competence-focused campaign in the race. She chairs the Senate Finance Committee, emphasizes legal expertise, and has endorsements from the Houston Police Officers Union and TX DPS Officers Association. Her subdued style may be a liability in a primary that rewards heat. Polling: 13%.
Aaron Reitz — Facts: 5 | Emotion: 7
Paxton’s endorsed successor who served in the DOJ. His campaign leans on martial metaphors (“led legal troops into legal combat”) and loyalty to Paxton. At 6% in polls, he’s a long shot.
Comptroller: The DOGE Primary
Don Huffines — Facts: 4 | Emotion: 8
The former State Senator leads at 33% on a platform of “DOGE-ing Texas” — bringing the Elon Musk-style efficiency push to state government. The concept is more branding than detailed policy, but the endorsement list is a who’s-who of MAGA: Ted Cruz, Vivek Ramaswamy, Matt Gaetz, Ron Paul, Charlie Kirk. Raised $15M+.
Christi Craddick — Facts: 7 | Emotion: 3
The current Railroad Commissioner is the anti-Huffines: competence-focused, low-drama, running on her record of modernizing a regulatory agency that oversees one-third of the state economy. At 21%, she’s the substance candidate in a vibes race.
Kelly Hancock — Facts: 5 | Emotion: 4
The interim Comptroller (appointed by Abbott) is running on continuity. Endorsed by the governor. Polling at 13%.
Michael Berlanga
An accountant polling at 4% who did not respond to media interview requests.
Agriculture Commissioner: Scandal vs. Substance
Nate Sheets — Facts: 7 | Emotion: 4
The founder of Nature Nate’s honey is a former Sid Miller donor who turned critic. He entered the race because he was “frustrated that Miller was focusing on culture war issues that do not support farmers and ranchers.” Endorsed by Gov. Abbott. Outraising Miller 3-to-1.
Sid Miller — Facts: 3 | Emotion: 8
The three-term incumbent has the longest rap sheet on the ballot: Texas Rangers investigation for misusing public funds (including a trip for the “Jesus shot”), multiple ethics fines, a consultant indicted for hemp license bribery whom Miller then hired as chief of staff, and allegations he asked a friend to dispose of marijuana before a DEA investigation. Top Republicans describe a “tolerance for criminality.” His campaign runs on culture war combativeness and grievance.
Railroad Commissioner: Culture Wars Meet Oil Regulation
A five-way race where the most interesting dynamic is Bo French (Facts: 2, Emotion: 9) trying to inject DEI and China fears into an oil and gas regulatory body. Incumbent Jim Wright (Facts: 6, Emotion: 4) dismissed this, saying the commission “has nothing to do with” Islam or the CCP. Jim Matlock is in a statistical tie with Wright at ~20% each. Katherine Culbert, a process safety engineer, runs the most technical campaign (Facts: 6, Emotion: 3). Hawk Dunlap, a former well control specialist, trails at 4%.
Judicial Races
Judicial campaigns tend to be quieter, and these are no exception.
Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 3: Alison Fox (Facts: 8, Emotion: 2) stands out with ~10 years at the CCA itself and a Dallas Morning News endorsement. Thomas Smith has solid legal credentials. Lesli Fitzpatrick and Brent Coffee both declined media interviews.
Court of Criminal Appeals, Place 9: Both candidates are excellent. Jennifer Balido (sitting judge, 8-year appellate division chief, Abbott-endorsed) and John Messinger (career appellate prosecutor) both score Facts: 8, Emotion: 2. The Dallas Morning News said “voters cannot go wrong with either.”
State Board of Education, District 9
An open seat with three candidates: Rachel Hogue (educator), Stephen Yearout (technology director), and Kason Huddleston (minister). All have limited public campaign profiles.
State Senator, District 2: A Stark Contrast
Bob Hall — Facts: 2 | Emotion: 9
The 83-year-old incumbent’s number one priority is addressing “the growing problem of Sharia law.” He also wants libraries to remove material he considers objectionable. This is a campaign built almost entirely on fear of cultural infiltration.
Jason Eddington — Facts: 6 | Emotion: 4
The 43-year-old healthcare administrator entered the race because rapid growth is straining his Forney community. He proposes sub-policy councils for constituent input and 12-year term limits. A practical, community-oriented campaign.
State Rep, District 112
Angie Chen Button — Facts: 8 | Emotion: 3
The 17-year incumbent chairs the Trade, Workforce and Economic Development Committee and runs the most policy-specific campaign on the ballot. She cites specific bills (SB 840 for multifamily housing, inventory tax elimination on groceries), committee work, and a bipartisan approach: “Most bills are not partisan issues.” Endorsed by the Dallas Morning News.
Three challengers (Perry E. Barker Sr., Chad Carnahan, Tina Price) have limited public information available.
The Rankings
Who Relies Most on Facts?
| Rank | Candidate | Office | Facts | Emotion | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alison Fox | CCA Place 3 | 8 | 2 | +6 |
| 1 | Jennifer Balido | CCA Place 9 | 8 | 2 | +6 |
| 1 | John Messinger | CCA Place 9 | 8 | 2 | +6 |
| 4 | Angie Chen Button | HD-112 | 8 | 3 | +5 |
| 5 | Christi Craddick | Comptroller | 7 | 3 | +4 |
| 6 | Joan Huffman | Attorney General | 7 | 4 | +3 |
| 6 | Nate Sheets | Ag Commissioner | 7 | 4 | +3 |
| 8 | Chip Roy | Attorney General | 7 | 5 | +2 |
| 9 | Jason Eddington | SD-2 | 6 | 4 | +2 |
| 10 | John Cornyn | US Senate | 6 | 6 | 0 |
Who Relies Most on Emotion?
| Rank | Candidate | Office | Emotion | Facts | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bob Hall | SD-2 | 9 | 2 | +7 |
| 1 | Bo French | Railroad Comm. | 9 | 2 | +7 |
| 3 | Ken Paxton | US Senate | 9 | 3 | +6 |
| 4 | Sid Miller | Ag Commissioner | 8 | 3 | +5 |
| 5 | Don Huffines | Comptroller | 8 | 4 | +4 |
| 5 | Mayes Middleton | Attorney General | 8 | 4 | +4 |
| 7 | Pete “Doc” Chambers | Governor | 8 | 5 | +3 |
| 8 | Wesley Hunt | US Senate | 7 | 5 | +2 |
| 8 | Aaron Reitz | Attorney General | 7 | 5 | +2 |
| 10 | Dan Patrick | Lt. Governor | 7 | 6 | +1 |
Controversy Leaderboard
| Candidate | Office | Level |
|---|---|---|
| Ken Paxton | US Senate | Impeached, securities fraud indictment, whistleblower retaliation |
| Sid Miller | Ag Commissioner | Rangers investigation, ethics fines, consultant bribery, alleged marijuana disposal |
| John Cornyn | US Senate | Gun safety bill backlash, “establishment” label |
| Dan Patrick | Lt. Governor | Property tax clash with Abbott, power concentration criticism |
| Greg Abbott | Governor | Power grid failures, migrant busing controversy |
Most Qualified for the Specific Office
| Candidate | Office | Why |
|---|---|---|
| John Cornyn | US Senate | 23+ years in the Senate |
| Jennifer Balido | CCA Place 9 | Sitting judge, 8-year appellate division chief |
| Alison Fox | CCA Place 3 | ~10 years at the Court of Criminal Appeals |
| Dan Patrick | Lt. Governor | 10+ years presiding over TX Senate |
| Greg Abbott | Governor | 10+ years as Governor, former AG |
| Joan Huffman | Attorney General | 17+ years in State Senate, finance chair |
| Angie Chen Button | HD-112 | 17+ years in TX House, committee chair |
| Christi Craddick | Comptroller | 13+ years regulating 1/3 of TX economy |
Uncontested Races
These positions have a single Republican candidate:
| Office | Candidate |
|---|---|
| US Rep, District 5 | Lance Gooden |
| General Land Office | Dawn Buckingham |
| Chief Justice, Supreme Court | Jimmy Blacklock |
| Supreme Court, Place 2 | James P. Sullivan |
| Supreme Court, Place 7 | Kyle Hawkins |
| Supreme Court, Place 8 | Brett Busby |
| CCA Place 4 | Kevin Patrick Yeary |
| Chief Justice, 15th CoA | Scott Brister |
| 15th CoA, Place 2 | Scott K. Field |
| 15th CoA, Place 3 | April Farris |
| 5th CoA, Place 3 | Matthew Kolodoski |
| 5th CoA, Place 6 | Ben Smith |
| 5th CoA, Place 8 | Ashley Wysocki |
| District Judge, 298th | Clark B. Will |
| County Judge | Mike Immler |
| District Clerk | Dave Muehlhaeusler |
| County Clerk | Skye Garcia |
| County Treasurer | Corsandra Brigham Phelps |
| JP, Pct 2, Place 1 | Vickie Whiteside |
| Constable, Pct 2 | Chad Calvert |
| County Chair | Allen B. West |
Methodology
Fact-Based Persuasion (1–10): How often a candidate uses verifiable data, specific policy proposals, legislative records, statistics, and detailed plans.
Emotion-Based Persuasion (1–10): How often a candidate uses fear, anger, patriotism, in-group identity, personal narratives, culture war framing, and moral outrage.
These are independent scales — a candidate can score high on both. Scores are based on campaign websites, public statements, news coverage, editorial board interviews, and advertising as of February 2026. Candidates with insufficient publicly available material were marked N/A.
Sources: Texas Tribune, Dallas Morning News, Ballotpedia, NBC News, Houston Public Media, Spectrum News, Fox 7 Austin, San Antonio Report, Emerson College Polling, Community Impact, KLTV, The Texan, Texas Scorecard, Axios